Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
